Euronext today announced the results of the successful issue of Treasury Bonds dedicated to retail investors, to be listed in its regulated market on November 30. Initially set at €500 million, the Portuguese Treasury and Debt Management Agency (IGCP), which has issued this “OTRV NOVEMBRO 2021” bond on behalf of the Portuguese government, has triplicated the total amount to €1.5 billion based on a surge in demand for the subscription period.
read more...Euronext: Successful Issue Of Portuguese Treasury Bonds Dedicated To Retail - “OTRV NOVEMBRO 2021” Demand Exceeds €2 Billion
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DIFC Embraces The Spirit Of The UAE For 45th National Day
Members of Dubai International Financial Centre’s community of 21,000 people and over 1,500 firms from across the globe came together to celebrate the 45th UAE National Day, embracing the country’s values of openness, diversity and heritage.
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Borsa Istanbul: Periodic Review For The BIST-KYD Corporate Eurobond Indices For The Period December 2016 Has Been Finalized
In accordance with the article 3.3. of BIST-KYD Indices Ground Rules, periodic review for the BIST-KYD Corporate Eurobond Indices for the period December 2016 (December 1, 2016 – December 31, 2016) has been finalized. There is not any Eurobond to be included in or excluded from the BIST-KYD Corporate Eurobond USD and BIST-KYD Corporate Eurobond USD (TRY) Indices and they will continue to be calculated with the same list of constituents in the period December 2016.
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Thomson Reuters Wealth Management Offers Portfolio Management Solutions Through Agreement With Dorsey, Wright & Associates, A Nasdaq Company - Thomson ONE Wealth Management Clients Will Have Access To Technical Analysis Research And Workflow Tools That Address Multiple Asset Classes And Instrument Types At Their Fingertips
Thomson Reuters has signed an agreement with Dorsey, Wright & Associates (DWA), a Nasdaq Company, to offer investment research and portfolio management solutions to Thomson ONE Wealth clients in the Americas and Canada, through Dorsey Wright’s “DWA Research Platform,” a web-based technical research platform used by thousands of advisors to help build and manage portfolios in a transparent, rules-based, and systematic way.
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NYSE, NYSE Arca And NYSE MKT Short Interest Reports
NYSE today reported short interest as of the close of business on the settlement date of November 15, 2016.
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Nasdaq Announces Mid-Month Open Short Interest Positions In Nasdaq Stocks As Of Settlement Date November 15, 2016
At the end of the settlement date of November 15, 2016, short interest in 2,326 Nasdaq Global MarketSM securities totaled 7,733,350,362 shares compared with 7,603,044,420 shares in 2,327 Global Market issues reported for the prior settlement date of October 31, 2016. The mid-November short interest represents 4.50 days average daily Nasdaq Global Market share volume for the reporting period, compared with 5.35 days for the prior reporting period.
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The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices -- by Michael Gelman, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Shachar Kariv, Dmitri Koustas, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, Steven Tadelis
This paper estimates how overall consumer spending responds to changes in gasoline prices. It uses the differential impact across consumers of the sudden, large drop in gasoline prices in 2014 for identification. This estimation strategy is implemented using comprehensive, daily transaction-level data for a large panel of individuals. The estimated marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is approximately one, a higher estimate than estimates found in less comprehensive or well-measured data. This estimate takes into account the elasticity of demand for gasoline and potential slow adjustment to changes in prices. The high MPC implies that changes in gasoline prices have large aggregate effects.
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The Political Economy of Weak Treaties -- by Marco Battaglini, Bard Harstad
In recent decades, democratic countries have signed hundreds of international environmental agreements (IEAs). Most of these agreements, however, are weak: they generally do not include effective enforcement or monitoring mechanisms. This is a puzzle in standard economic models. To study this phenomenon, we propose a positive theory of IEAs in which the political incumbents negotiate them in the shadow of reelection concerns. We show that, in these environments, incumbents are prone to negotiate treaties that are simultaneously overambitious (larger than what they would be without electoral concerns) and weak (might not be implemented in full). The theory also provides a new perspective for understanding investments in green technologies, highlighting a channel through which countries are tempted to rely too much on technology instead of sanctions to make compliance credible. We present preliminary evidence consistent with these predictions.
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Where Do Students Go when For-Profit Colleges Lose Federal Aid? -- by Stephanie R. Cellini, Rajeev Darolia, Lesley J. Turner
Recent federal investigations and new regulations have resulted in restrictions on for-profit institutions' access to federal student aid. We examine the enrollment effects of similar restrictions imposed on over 1,200 for-profit colleges in the 1990s. Using variation in regulations linked to student loan default rates, we estimate the impact of the loss of federal aid on the enrollment of Pell Grant recipients in sanctioned institutions and their local competitors. Enrollment in a sanctioned for-profit college declines by 53 percent in the five years following a sanction. For-profit sanctions result in negative spillovers on unsanctioned competitor for-profit colleges in the same county, which experience modest enrollment declines. These enrollment losses in the for-profit sector are offset by gains in enrollment in local community colleges, suggesting that the loss of federal student aid for poor-performing for-profit colleges does not reduce overall college-going but instead shifts students across higher education sectors. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that students induced to enroll in community colleges following a for-profit competitor's sanction are less likely to default on their federal loans.
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Public Sector Personnel Economics: Wages, Promotions, and the Competence-Control Trade-off -- by Charles M. Cameron, John M. de Figueiredo, David E. Lewis
We model personnel policies in public agencies, examining how wages and promotion standards can partially offset a fundamental contracting problem: the inability of public sector workers to contract on performance, and the inability of political masters to contract on forbearance from meddling. Despite the dual contracting problem, properly constructed personnel policies can encourage intrinsically motivated public sector employees to invest in expertise, seek promotion, remain in the public sector, and develop policy projects. However, doing so requires internal personnel policies that sort "slackers" from "zealots." Personnel policies that accomplish this task are quite different in agencies where acquired expertise has little value in the private sector, and agencies where acquired expertise commands a premium in the private sector. Finally, even with well-designed personnel policies, there remains an inescapable trade-off between political control and expertise acquisition.
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Disaggregating the Matching Function -- by Peter A. Diamond, Ayseguel sahin
The aggregate matching (hiring) function relates gross hires to labor market tightness. Decompositions of aggregate hires show how the hiring process differs across different groups of workers and of firms. Decompositions include employment status in the previous month, age, gender and education. Another separates hiring between part-time and full-time jobs, which show different patterns in the current recovery. Shift-share analyses are done based on industry, firm size and occupation to show what part of the residual of the aggregate hiring function can be explained by the composition of vacancies. The hiring process appears to shift as a recovery starts, coinciding with shifts in the Beveridge curve. The paper also discusses some issues in the modeling of the labor market.
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An Energy-centric Theory of Agglomeration -- by Juan Moreno-Cruz, M. Scott Taylor
This paper sets out a simple spatial model of energy exploitation to ask how the location and productivity of energy resources affects the distribution of economic activity across geographic space. By combining elements from energy economics and economic geography we link the productivity of energy resources to the incentives for economic activity to agglomerate. We find a novel scaling law links the productivity of energy resources to population sizes, while rivers and roads effectively magnify productivity. We show how our theory's predictions concerning a single core, aggregate to predictions over regional landscapes and city size distributions at the country level.
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Empowering Mothers and Enhancing Early Childhood Investment: Effect on Adults Outcomes and Children Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills -- by Victor Lavy, Giulia Lotti, Zizhong Yan
Empowering women and enhancing children's early development are two important goals that are often pursued via independent policy initiatives in developing countries. In this paper we study a unique approach that pursues both goals at the same time: empowering mothers through tools that also advance their children's development. A program operated by AVSI, an Italian NGO, in a poor neighborhood of Quito, Ecuador, targets parents of children from birth to age 5. It provides family advisor-guided parent training sessions once every two weeks for groups of six to eight mothers and their children. We find that the program empowered women in various dimensions, including higher labor force participation and employment, higher likelihood of a full-time job in the formal-sector and higher wages. Treated mothers are also more likely to continue their education, make independent decisions regarding their own finances, have greater role in intra-household decisions, especially on issues involving children's education and discipline and increase parental inputs into their children's development. We find that treated children improve their cognitive and non-cognitive skills, for example, they are less likely to repeat a grade or temporarily drop-out from schooling, are less absent from and have improved behaviors in school, have better attitudes towards learning, and achieve higher scores on cognitive tests. Applying a recently suggested factor model of children's relative non-cognitive skills reaffirms our finding of significant gains in children non-cognitive skills. All results hold when we estimate aggregate treatment impacts, use summary indices instead of individual outcomes in order to account for multiple inference, when we use entropy balancing to adjust for differences in pre-treatment covariates, and when we use other robustness checks.
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Industrial Productivity in a Hotter World: The Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Firm Investment in Air Conditioning -- by Joshua Graff Zivin, Matthew E. Kahn
How will a nation's aggregate urban productivity be affected by climate change? The joint distribution of climate conditions and economic activity across a nation's cities will together determine industrial average exposure to climate risk. Air conditioning (AC) can greatly reduce this heat exposure. We develop a simple model of air conditioning adoption by heterogeneous firms within an industry. Our analysis suggests that high productivity firms are more likely to adopt AC since they suffer larger productivity losses when it is hot. Given that the most productive firms produce a disproportionate share of industry-level output, we present aggregation results highlighting how the industry's output is insulated from the heat. Our empirical analysis of the impacts of heat on total factor productivity in U.S manufacturing yields findings broadly consistent with our model's predictions.
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Knowing When to Ask: The Cost of Leaning In -- by Christine L. Exley, Muriel Niederle, Lise Vesterlund
Gender differences in the propensity to negotiate are often used to explain the gender wage gap, popularizing the push for women to "lean-in." We use a laboratory experiment to examine the effect of leaning-in. Despite men and women achieving similar and positive returns when they must negotiate, we find that women avoid negotiations more often than men. While this suggests that women would benefit from leaning-in, a direct test of the counterfactual proves otherwise. Women appear to positively select into negotiations and to know when to ask. By contrast, we find no significant evidence of a positive selection for men.
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The Economic Structure of International Trade-in-Services Agreements -- by Robert W. Staiger, Alan O. Sykes
The existing economics literature on international trade agreements focuses on tariff agreements covering trade in goods, and offers an explanation for core features of the GATT. Tariffs play almost no role in services markets, however, and the existing models cannot account for the dramatically different approach to trade liberalization in agreements such as the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). We develop a model through which key features of GATS, including its emphasis on "deep integration" - sector-by-sector negotiations on behind the border policy instruments - can be understood. And we use this model to suggest that there may also be a middle ground for services trade liberalization between the GATS deep-integration approach and the traditional border-policy focused "shallow integration" approach of GATT.
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Box Office Buzz: Does Social Media Data Steal the Show from Model Uncertainty When Forecasting for Hollywood? -- by Steven Lehrer, Tian Xie
Substantial excitement currently exists in industry regarding the potential of using analytic tools to measure sentiment in social media messages to help predict individual reactions to a new product, including movies. However, the majority of models subsequently used for forecasting exercises do not allow for model uncertainty. Using data on the universe of Twitter messages, we use an algorithm that calculates the sentiment regarding each film prior to, and after its release date via emotional valence to understand whether these opinions affect box office opening and retail movie unit (DVD and Blu-Ray) sales. Our results contrasting eleven different empirical strategies from econometrics and penalization methods indicate that accounting for model uncertainty can lead to large gains in forecast accuracy. While penalization methods do not outperform model averaging on forecast accuracy, evidence indicates they perform just as well at the variable selection stage. Last, incorporating social media data is shown to greatly improve forecast accuracy for box-office opening and retail movie unit sales.
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Regional Distribution and Dynamics of Human Capital in China 1985-2014: Education, Urbanization, and Aging of the Population -- by Haizheng Li, Junzi He, Qinyi Liu, Barbara M. Fraumeni, Xiang Zheng
Given the challenges in quantifying the role of human capital on economic development, measuring human capital itself becomes an important issue. It is desirable to have a comprehensive human capital measure that goes beyond the traditional measures based on education attainment, yet is relatively simple to obtain. In this study, we apply the Jorgenson-Fraumeni human capital measurement framework and modify it to estimate provincial level human capital in China. We produce a provincial level panel dataset from 1985 to 2014 that is ready to use, with various J-F based and traditional human capital measures. We then combine the provinces into four different regions that are at different stages of economic development and discuss the regional pattern and trend of human capital, as well as their correlation with other economic indicators such as GDP and physical capital. Moreover, we conduct a Divisia decomposition analysis to investigate the contribution of different factors, such as education, urbanization, population aging and gender composition, to the quantity and quality growth of human capital in each region.
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Look Inside the Disruptive Digital Transformation in China
 |  | Latest overview of China’s macro economy and important government policy drivers behind the digital economy growth. |
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